Big Brown is currently the big horse at Churchill Downs. Trained by Rick Dutrow, Big Brown has won his three career starts by a combined 29 lengths and has been installed as the morning line favorite for Saturday’s 134th running of the Kentucky Derby.

But the Florida Derby G1 winner has less than favorable historic odds. He has raced just three times, and no horse has won the Derby with such limited experience since Regret in 1915. He will also start from the far outside in a 20-horse field, and no horse has won from that post since 1929. Finally, although Big Brown is undefeated, he has always set the pace and never been challenged. Kent Desormeaux, who rode the big brown colt in the Florida Derby, will be aboard again on Saturday.

The big question about California shipper Colonel John, as regards to his switch from artificial surface to dirt, remains to be answered until Saturday. But the classy Tiznow son posted a bullet 5 furlongs in :57.4 on April 27 and has been installed as the second morning line favorite at 4 to 1.

Colonel John has won both of his starts this year: the Santa Anita Derby G1, under Corey Nakatani, who will be aboard on Saturday, and the Sham Stakes G3. Eoin Harty, his trainer, was assistant to Bob Baffert, when Baffert won the Kentucky Derby with Silver Charm in 1997 and Real Quiet in 1998. It might be noted that Silver Charm, like Colonel John, won the Santa Anita Derby and raced exclusively in California prior to the Kentucky Derby.

Before his dismal performance as the beaten favorite in the Blue Grass Stakes G1, Pyro looked to be the horse to beat in the Run for the Roses. The Pulpit son, trained by Steve Asmussen, who also has Horse of the Year Curlin in his stable, has a turbo-powered late drive that got him wins in the Risen Star G3 and the Louisiana Derby G2.  He also has a history at Churchill Downs, having broken his maiden there at two, in his first start.

Pyro is third on the morning line at 6 to 1, and will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan, who has been in the irons for all seven of the colt’s career starts.

Following Pyro, the next lowest morning line odds of 15 to 1 have been assigned to Wood Memorial G1 winner Tale of Ekate, trained by Barclay Tagg; Eight Belles, the only filly in the field, trained by Larry Jones; Z Fortune, runnerup in the Arkansas Derby G2, trained by Steve Asmussen; and Gayego, winner of the Arkansas Derby, trained by Paulo Lobo.

The remaining field and their morning line odds: Cool Coal Man at 20 to 1; Anak Nakal at 30 to 1; Court Vision at 20 to 1; Big Truck at 50 to 1; Visionaire at 20 to 1; Z Humor at 30 to 1; Smooth Air at 20 to 1; Bob Black Jack at 20 to 1; Adriano at 30 to 1; Dennis of Cork at 20 to 1; Cowboy Cal at 20 to 1; and Recapturetheglory at 20 to 1.

The first leg of Thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown will carry a total purse of $2,211,800 with $1,451,800 going to the winner, if all 20 horses start. Post time is 6:04 p.m. (EDT) and the race will be carried by NBC from 4-6:30 p.m.

For what it is worth, as long shots, I like Tale of Ekate and Gayego, but my safe bet goes to Pyro and Colonel John, in that order.