I usually spend too much time analyzing past performance records for the Kentucky Derby. So this year I’ve taken a different approach and decided to go with a quick run through of the PPs, along with my instincts based on what I’ve gleaned from the media and replays of the major prep races, as well as workout reports from Churchill Downs.

This year my money will be boxed with 3 to 1 morning line favorite I Want Revenge, who could have used a traffic cop, but managed without one, to win the G1 Wood Memorial, and Pioneerof the Nile, at 4 to 1, winner in all three of his starts this year, including the G1 Santa Anita Derby and the G2 Robert Lewis, where he defeated I Want Revenge.

Pioneerof the Nile goes out for Bob Baffert, who trained previous Derby winners Real Quiet, Silver Charm and War Emblem. Although this will be Pioneerof the Nile’s first start on dirt, he has been handling the Churchill Downs surface well in preparation for the Derby and has earned $1,193,250, with five wins, in eight lifetime starts.

Garrett Gomez, North America’s leading rider with $6 million won so far in 2009, will wear the silks of Pioneerof the Nile’s owner and breeder, Zayat Stables.

I Want Revenge is owned by a partnership that includes IEAH Stables, also part owner of last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Big Brown (pictured). He is conditioned by Jeff Mullins, the only trainer in the 69-year history of the Santa Anita Derby to saddle three consecutive winners of that race (Baffert has trained a total of five Santa Anita Derby winners). Sunday Silence, in 1989, was the last Santa Anita Derby winner to also claim the Kentucky Derby, but previous dual winners include Swaps, Majestic Prince, Sham, Affirmed and the filly Winning Colors.

Joseph Talamo, 19, rides I Want Revenge, the only mount  in the 20-horse field, other than 50 to 1 shot Summer Bird, that has carried the same rider in all of his starts – a total of eight, with three wins and $816,000. A native Louisianan, Talamo received an Eclipse Award in 2007 as outstanding apprentice jockey.

My long shot, at 15 to 1 on the morning line: Hold Me Back, was also the long shot winner of the G2 Lanes End. He doesn’t have a lot of experience, but he’s gone 1-1-0 this year in two starts and has been working well at Churchill. He’s trained by Bill Mott for Texas-owned WinStar Farm, and is ridden by Kent Desormeaux, last year’s Derby winner. Desormeaux also claimed the Run for the Roses on Real Quiet for Bob Baffert, and in 2000, was victorious on Fusaichi Pegasus, the last Wood Memorial winner to also win the Kentucky Derby.